(Submit Articles) Economists at Wilkinson Bennings Securities report stock prices are rising on expectations that at least a moderate economic recovery is near, and investors will be examining the jobs data for more positive signs.
U.S. and U.K. Job losses are slowing, and the unemployment rate is expected to top out. Last month’s payroll data showed the smallest decline in nearly a year. US job loss numbers dipped under one half million per month. The gains made by the United Kingdom will unfortunately be offset by the impact of the Irish bailout by the EU. Portugal and Spain are also on the critical list and are not expected to contribute to job creation for at least a year.
Trends in both preliminary claims for jobless benefits and the volume of ongoing claims strongly hint that labor market pressures are easing. If economists are correct about second-half growth in GDP, employment weakness should continue to moderate with the possibility of net job recovery by the turn of the year. While the government's second guess of last quarter's GDP showed no net change in the 1.4% decline reported earlier, the underlying indicators now show even more inventory liquidation and slightly more strength in overall demand.
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